The dilemma, the prisoner's dilemma, the security dilemma

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What is a dilemma?

Dilemma means that you are caught between the judgment of a dog and in a state where neither side can decide, to put it simply, you are in a dilemma that we commonly know, and you lose out on either side.

 

The prisoner's dilemma

Let's take a look at the most representative dilemma, the prisoner's dilemma. Suppose the prosecutor is interrogating two suspected murder suspects. The prosecutor in charge will make the following suggestions to the two suspects. "From now on, I will lock you in separate rooms for interrogation, and if both of you admit to committing the crime, I will seek a light sentence of three years in prison."

 

"However, if one person confesses, the person who confesses will be spared the crime, and the other suspect who denies the crime will be sentenced to five years in prison. Also, if you both deny it, you will seek six months in prison for minor mistakes you have made." What choice would you make if you were one of the suspects here?

We will have to base our trust and faith in the other person in order to answer the question. It would be the wisest choice for the two suspects to deny their confessions, but the reality is different because they are unsure of their trust and trust in the other person. In fact, when these experiments were conducted, denying all crimes was a very low expected prison term, so it would be a reasonable choice, but most of them denied their own crimes and admitted the other person's crimes.

Security dilemma

The security dilemma has the same principle as the prisoner's dilemma. If both countries, P1 and P2, are in a competitive relationship, working together by reducing military spending will not only prevent them from spending on unnecessary military power, but will also reduce threats and promote peace as both countries reduce military spending.

 

On the other hand, if only one side reduces military spending and the other increases military spending, the country that has reduced military spending will be underdeveloped in its competitive relationship and the threat will increase. On the other hand, a country that has increased its armaments can gain an upper hand in its competition and an opportunity to attack its opponent. That's why the two countries doubt each other's cooperation and intentions and increase their armaments.

 

Both countries get into a vicious cycle of increasing threats to each other and increasing arms again to counter the increased threats. This is called the security dilemma. The security dilemma is often used to explain the recent hegemonic war between the United States and China. And it's also used to describe the outbreak of the war in Ukraine following the rivalry between NATO and Russia.

 

Countries increasing their arms for their own security means threatening their opponents, causing them to increase their arms, which in turn increases their security threats and requires them to increase their arms again.